Podcast: Will Americans believe Mueller?

Mueller is done with his investigation. His report (in some form) should be released soon. The other week I appeared on the United States Studies Centre podcast 2020Vision  to discuss what his public opinion surveys suggest people believe on Russian interference and other issues likely to be important in the 2020 US presidential election, including …

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Did the Australian Labor Party’s 2016 ‘Mediscare’ Campaign Work?

On the night of 2 July, 2016, following what was a mostly tepid national election campaign, the (then) Liberal Party prime minister Malcolm Turnbull launched a tirade on national television, asserting that the tactics used by the Labor Party over previous weeks had involved ‘some of the most systematic, well-funded lies ever peddled in Australia’. …

Very legal and very cool: public opinion on Trump, Russia and the Mueller investigation

In January 2017, the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence assessed that Russian President Vladimir Putin orchestrated a campaign designed to harm the electoral chances of Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, faith in the US electoral system, and increase political instability in the United States. Since Trump's inauguration, these questions over the extent of …

What are the mid-terms?

The United States midterm elections are being held on Tuesday, 6 November. This offers the first nationwide referendum on the presidency of Donald Trump. Presidential elections are held every four years, in conjunction with votes for congress, state governors and other positions. Midterm elections are held half-way between presidential elections (in the middle of a …

Republicans and Democrats are more polarised on immigration than parties in the UK or Australia

This is something I wrote up a while ago but did not get the chance to post here until now. Queensland Senator Fraser Anning’s widely condemned call for a “final solution” to the Australia’s “immigration problem” the other month should not be viewed in isolation. While his rhetoric was stronger than what we’re used to …

America’s trust deficit

Compared to Australia, the United States has a trust problem. Recent polling we commissioned from YouGov, surveying both Australians and Americans, showed Australians consistently reporting higher levels of trust than Americans. It didn’t matter what we asked about — the national government, state governments, family and friends, media, political parties — Australians appear to be …

New paper – Public opinion and policy responsiveness: the case of same-sex marriage in Australia

Research undertaken with my colleagues Andrea Carson and Yannick Dufresne has been accepted by the Australian Journal of Political Science, and will be published in a future issue sometime soon (you can read it here)*, we examined whether Australian federal legislators’ policy positions are congruent with public opinion. This paper examines the congruence between the …

Guest post on the Political Organisations and Participation blog

I have published a guest post on the The Political Organisations and Participation group blog.* This post discusses the findings from one of my papers published in the Australian Journal of Political Science (read the full version) that discusses how we should view Australia’s major political parties as interest aggregators pursuing specific policy outcomes, rather …

The geography of public opinion in Australia

The maps below are preliminary results based on work done with Simon Jackman and Luke Mansillo on ways to obtain estimates of public opinion in smaller geographic areas using unconventional data. We use data collected over the 56 days of the 2016 Australian federal election. Each of the maps below shows the probability that voters in each electoral …